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Research Papers: Energy Systems Analysis

An Artificial Neural Network in Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting of a University Campus: A Case Study

[+] Author and Article Information
David Palchak

Department of Mechanical Engineering,
Colorado State University,
Fort Collins, CO 80523
e-mail: jd.palchak@gmail.com

Siddharth Suryanarayanan

Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering,
Colorado State University,
Fort Collins, CO 80523
e-mail: sid@colostate.edu

Daniel Zimmerle

Engines & Energy Conversion Laboratory,
Colorado State University,
Fort Collins, CO, 80523
e-mail: Dan.Zimmerle@colostate.edu

1Corresponding author.

Contributed by the Advanced Energy Systems Division of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES TECHNOLOGY. Manuscript received February 16, 2012; final manuscript received February 7, 2013; published online May 24, 2013. Assoc. Editor: Kau-Fui Wong.

J. Energy Resour. Technol 135(3), 032001 (May 24, 2013) (6 pages) Paper No: JERT-12-1033; doi: 10.1115/1.4023741 History: Received February 16, 2012; Revised February 07, 2013

This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) for forecasting the short-term electrical load of a university campus using real historical data from Colorado State University. A spatio-temporal ANN model with multiple weather variables as well as time identifiers, such as day of week and time of day, are used as inputs to the network presented. The choice of the number of hidden neurons in the network is made using statistical information and taking into account the point of diminishing returns. The performance of this ANN is quantified using three error metrics: the mean average percent error; the error in the ability to predict the occurrence of the daily peak hour; and the difference in electrical energy consumption between the predicted and the actual values in a 24-h period. These error measures provide a good indication of the constraints and applicability of these predictions. In the presence of some enabling technologies such as energy storage, rescheduling of noncritical loads, and availability of time of use (ToU) pricing, the possible demand-side management options that could stem from an accurate prediction of energy consumption of a campus include the identification of anomalous events as well the management of usage.

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Figures

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Fig. 1

Monthly climatic data for Fort Collins, CO [33]

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Fig. 2

Typical weekday and weekend load profiles

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Fig. 3

Architecture of the ANN

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Fig. 4

(a) MAPE versus number of neurons in the hidden layer of the ANN. (b) A zoom-in of 0-5% MAPE versus number of neurons in the hidden layer of the ANN

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Fig. 5

Error in peak hour prediction of the 121 test days

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Fig. 6

Typical load profile and forecast for 24-hour period

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Fig. 7

MAPE over 242 test days

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