Parameter Estimation for Hyperbolic Decline Curve

[+] Author and Article Information
B. J. Ayeni

3M Company, IS&DP Statistical Consulting, St. Paul. MN 55144

J. Energy Resour. Technol 111(4), 279-283 (Dec 01, 1989) (5 pages) doi:10.1115/1.3231437 History: Received August 17, 1988; Revised September 06, 1989; Online October 22, 2009


The problem of estimating the nonlinear parameters associated with the hyperbolic decline curve equation is considered in this paper. Estimation equations are developed to estimate these nonlinear parameters. The condition under which the results can be used to predict future oil productions is examined using actual field data. An approximate linear term is obtained from the nonlinear hyperbolic equation through Taylor’s series expansion, and the optimum parameter values are determined by employing the method of least squares through an iterative process. The estimated parameters are incorporated into the original hyperbolic decline equation to provide realistic forecast function. This method does not require any straight line extrapolation, shifting, correcting and/or adjusting scales in order to estimate future oil and gas predictions. The method has been successfully applied to actual oil production data from a West Cameron Block 33 Field in South Louisiana. The results obtained are provided in Fig. 1.

Copyright © 1989 by ASME
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